On the basis of the information tabulated below, REF calculates that the probable output from the consented renewable electricity capacity in the United Kingdom would be 148 TWh, which is an excess of 35% over the electricity target share of 110 TWh.
|Mar-17||Biomass||Hydro||Solar||Marine||Waste||Offshore Wind||Onshore Wind||Total|
|Under Construction (GW)||0.8||0.0||0.4||0.0||0.3||2.0||2.4||5.9|
|Awaiting Construction (GW)||2.8||0.0||2.6||0.5||0.6||12.0||3.1||21.7|
|Total Consented Capacity (GW)||6.9||0.5||10.5||0.5||1.9||19.1||16.0||55.4|
|Submitted to Planning (GW)||0.2||0.0||0.4||0.3||0.3||3.5||4.8||9.4|
|Est. output from consented capacity (TWh)||37.3||1.6||8.3||0.3||6.2||58.3||36.1||148.1|
|Est. output from in-planning capacity (TWh)||0.9||0.0||0.3||0.2||0.8||10.7||10.8||23.7|
This table uses data from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD), DECC's latest renewable sources data (Table 6.7 in DUKES 2015 Chapter 6: Renewable Sources of Energy) and the UK National Renewable Action Plan to indicate progress towards the electricity share of the United Kingdom's target under the European Union's Renewables Directive (2009)
It is based on two free-standing papers produced by REF in May 2014, and May 2015. Users are advised to read those papers for background information.
The UK's target is for 15% of Final Energy Consumption (FEC) to be renewable in 2020. Since actual FEC for that year is uncertain, the target can only be estimated, but is expected to be between about 230 and 270 TWh of energy. Transport is expected to contribute about 46 TWh (10.3% of UK transport energy calculated as specified by the Directive), heating and cooling about 80 TWh (12% of total gross energy consumption for UK's heating and cooling), and electricity about 110 TWh (31% of UK Total Gross Electricity consumption).
This table calculates the likely output from the capacities, consented and in planning, by using the average of the latest 5 years of Load Factors published by DECC in DUKES Table 6.5.
The table header calculates the electricity target overshoot from the consented capacity (i.e. operational + under construction + awaiting construction) to the target, assuming a target level of 110 TWh. Users should note that the output estimate is conservative, since the DECC REPD data omits a) unsubsidised hydro (which generates roughly 4 TWh per year) and b) smaller solar photovoltaic and other generation that is constructed as permitted development and does not pass through the planning system, and c) generation that is below 10 kW, regardless of whether it is visible in the planning system.